The latest Commitment of Traders report from the New York arabica market has seen the Non-Commercial Speculative sector increase their net long position by 16.16% within the market over the week of trade leading to Tuesday 23rd. May 2023: to register a new net long position of 14,879 lots, which is the equivalent of 4,218,131 bags. This net long position has most likely been marginally decreased following the period of mixed but overall softer trade that has since followed.

The latest Commitment of Traders report from the London Robusta coffee market has seen the Speculative Managed Money Sector marginally increase their net long position by 7.18% within the market over the week of trade leading to Tuesday 23rd. May 2023: to register a new net long position of 43,005 Lots which is the equivalent of 7,167,500 bags. This net long position has most likely been little changed following the period of mixed but overall sideways trade that has since followed.

With the month of May nearly complete and with the shipment statistics already at hand, the Vietnam General Statistics office have estimated that the coffee exports for the month of May will be 15.70% higher than the same month last year, at a total of approximately 2,750,000 bags.

The May 2023 export performance is anticipated to result in the countries coffee exports for the first eight months of the current October 2022 to September 2023 coffee year to be 20.75% higher than the same period last year, at a total of 21,083,332 bags. The General Statistics office of Vietnam have at the same time estimated that the value of the country’s coffee exports for the first five months of the current calendar year, shall be 1.30% higher than the same period in the previous year, at a total of approximately 2.00 billion US Dollars.

The USA will observe their Memorial Day today, which shall see the New York Arabica market closed accordingly, whilst the UK will celebrate their Spring Bank Holiday which shall also see the London Robusta Market closed for the day.

The Certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange were seen to decrease by 11,285 bags on Friday, to register these stocks at 598,493 bags, with 97.33% of these certified stocks being held in, Europe at a total of 582,514 bags and the remaining 2.67% being held in the USA at a total 15,979. Of this, a total 209,222 bags, or 34.96% of the coffees registered and stored in consumer country certified warehouses of the exchange, Brazil washed arabica, and a further 61.05% of these certified coffees, originating from Honduras. There was meanwhile a no change to the number of bags pending grading to the exchange; to register 0 bags pending grading on the day.

The July 2023 to July 2023 contract arbitrage between the London and New York markets narrowed on Friday to register this at 64.85 usc/Lb. This equates to 35.71% price discount for the London Robusta coffee market.

It was an overall softer day on the commodity markets yesterday, with the leading in influence Oil markets firmer on the day, while the US Dollar firmed for a second consecutive session. The London Robusta Coffee, Sugar, Cocoa, Corn, Soybean, Wheat, Gold, Silver, Platinum and Palladium markets ended the day on a positive note, while the New York Arabica Coffee market ended the day on a softer note. The day starts with the U.S. Dollar trading at 1.236 Sterling, at 1.074 the Euro and with the US Dollar buying 4.994 Brazil Real.

The New York market started the day on Friday trading to the south of par in modest softer territory, while the London market started the day trading to the North of par on a firmer note. Both markets were seen to oscillate around par for the remainder of the early morning session. The New York market attracted some degree of buying support to see the market trend in a firmer direction during the late morning session, with the London market following suit. As the afternoon progressed the London market, continued to trend firmer, accentuating the gains for the day, while the New York market continued to trade firmer before hitting a ceiling to limit the gains for the day during the mid-afternoon session. The New York market attracted fresh selling activity late in the day, to see the market trend back below par and extend the losses for the day, this saw the New York market settle on a softer note at the close, while the London market continued to trend firmer before being capped late in the day, to see the market settle on a firmer note at the close.

The London market ended the day on a positive note with 45.65% of the earlier gains of the day intact, while the New York market ended the day on a negative note with 45.83% of the earlier losses of the day intact. This mixed close for the markets does little to inspire confidence, with the New York market dropping back from highs of the day to settle on a negative note towards the close, and the London market retaining some of the earlier gains of the day, with the markets closed today, one might think that the markets are due for little better than a hesitant start to early trade tomorrow, against the prices set on Friday, as follows:

LONDON ROBUSTA US$/MT              NEW YORK USC/LB.

JUL     2574 + 21                                      JUL     181.60 – 1.10
SEP     2528 + 20                                      SEP     179.55 – 1.10
NOV   2469 + 12                                      DEC    177.65 – 1.15
JAN    2421 + 6                                        MAR   177.50 – 1.15
MAR  2401 + 4                                        MAY   178.00 – 1.15
MAY  2392 + 1                                        JUL     178.60 – 1.20
JUL    2389 + 1                                        SEP     179.35 – 1.35
SEP    2382 + 1                                        DEC    180.35 – 1.40